
Turkey plans to discuss a new mechanism with Russia to allow Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports. Turkey has sought to persuade Russia to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Moscow exited in July 2023.
A revived or replacement export arrangement would ease shipping risk for Ukrainian grain, which would weigh on wheat and corn prices.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.