
Turkey said talks with Russia on a Black Sea grain corridor are set for June 8. Work with the UN on an agreement is ongoing, but disputes between Moscow and Kyiv remain.
The UN has proposed a joint observation mechanism to monitor shipments.
A workable corridor would allow blocked Ukrainian grain to move and ease the supply shortage. Progress in these talks would push wheat and corn prices lower.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.