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Reuters analysis of industry data shows Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if diplomatic efforts produce a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The capacity is currently suspended or reduced because of mutual attacks on ports and shipping.
A ceasefire that restores Russian terminal capacity would release large volumes of wheat and corn into export markets, easing the supply squeeze and pressuring prices lower.
reuters.comGleb StolyarovSep 25, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
