Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+2.4%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump as Russia pulls out of Black Sea agreement | CBC News-5.6%
• Sep 1, 2026GRAINS-Chicago wheat hits multi-year peak after Russia rejects Black Sea grain plan - NewsX+0.8%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3.9%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+3.5%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+6.3%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump as Russia pulls out of Black Sea agreement | CBC News+3.1%
• Sep 1, 2026GRAINS-Chicago wheat hits multi-year peak after Russia rejects Black Sea grain plan - NewsX-1.9%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+6.0%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters+3.1%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+0.0%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters-8.6%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3.1%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+2.2%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.