Wheat futures jump as Russia pulls out of Black Sea agreement

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal - Grain Price News-5.6%
• Feb 10, 2023U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns-2.5%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3.9%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal: What's next now that Russia has pulled out?+2.4%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews-1.2%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal - Grain Price News+3.1%
• Feb 10, 2023U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns+2.2%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+6.0%
• Jul 31, 2026Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance-4.2%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters+3.1%