CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+7.3%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.2%
• Feb 13, 2025Ukrainian traders assess future grain trade flows amid prospects of war's end+1.9%
• Mar 14, 2022Russia gradually resuming wheat exports from Black Sea ports-1.8%
• Oct 1, 2026US Harvest Progress Caps Corn Gains as Black Sea Talks Pressure Wheat-2.9%

After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets-2.2%
• Oct 23, 2026Wheat prices fall to 14-week low on Black Sea hopes | Peepals-2.9%
• Aug 23, 2023US grain markets bumpy amid global challenges | World Grain-3.4%
• Oct 29, 2026CBOT wheat falls to 3½-month low on peace hopes | Adalytica-2.3%
• Mar 17, 2022U.S. grains: May wheats limit-down as peace talks progress - Manitoba Co-operator+3.6%