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Ukrainian traders weighed how a possible peace deal could change grain trade after a Trump-Putin meeting on February 12, 2025. They expected lower insurance and freight costs and a possible reopening of Mykolaiv port to ease port overcapacity.
Lower freight and insurance costs for Black Sea exports would narrow the export spread and could pressure world grain prices lower over time, though the outcome is still speculative.
spglobal.comFeb 13, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
