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U.S. wheat futures fell by their daily limit on March 16 as investors weighed whether Ukraine-Russia talks could produce a ceasefire. CBOT May wheat settled 85 cents lower at $10.69-1/4 a bushel, and CBOT May corn and soybeans also declined.
Rain forecast for the U.S. Plains eased concerns about dryness in winter wheat.
Peace-talk headlines cut the war-driven risk premium on wheat and corn, which had lifted prices about 20% since the invasion. Lower Black Sea supply risk points to softer feed grain costs for buyers, though prices remain elevated.
manitobacooperator.caChristopher Walljasper, GFM Network NewsMar 17, 2022After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
