US Harvest Progress Caps Corn Gains as Black Sea Talks Pressure Wheat

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2022U.S. grains: May wheats limit-down as peace talks progress - Manitoba Co-operator+15.8%
• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+7.3%
• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade+3.1%
• Aug 18, 2026Problems with Russian Black Sea exports are starting to pressure Central Asian grain markets+0.4%
• Jun 17, 2026Wheat markets shrug off US-Iran deal as freight, harvests take focus | S&P Global-1.6%

After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-3.5%
• Jul 14, 2022Wheat, soybeans fall on expectations of progress in Ukraine shipping talks - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org-12.5%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-3.5%
• Jul 30, 2026First Thing Today | Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer-2.5%
• Mar 25, 2025Russia, Ukraine agree to avoid attacks on grain ships, energy infrastructure on Black Sea-1.5%