Traders’ optimism for canola is short lived - Manitoba Co-operator

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Feb 14, 2018China's most powerful weapon in Trump trade war may backfire+3.5%
• Mar 28, 2017Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute-2.4%
• Jan 20, 2017Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.7%
• Feb 22, 2024Market Perspectives - February 22, 2024 - U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council-3.2%
• Dec 2, 2025Market Snapshot | Black Sea tensions spur rally in grains - Pro Farmer-2.4%

After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2022U.S. grains: May wheats limit-down as peace talks progress - Manitoba Co-operator+4.2%
• Sep 24, 2026US farmers push for China commitments on imports as Trump and Xi talk trade-1.9%
• Apr 1, 2026Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg-0.8%
• Feb 15, 2023Black Sea Initiative to keep markets volatile short term: Grain market daily | AHDB+0.1%
• May 3, 2017Pro-Trump farmers worry they'll lose lucrative GMO corn exports to Mexico if president rolls back NAFTA - Genetic Literacy Project+0.8%