Market Snapshot | Black Sea tensions spur rally in grains - Pro Farmer

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 5, 2023Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat-0.2%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-3.8%
• Oct 30, 2022Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt-2.2%
• Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily-0.7%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews+0.5%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• May 5, 2023Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat-0.4%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-4.9%
• Jul 20, 2023Palm oil futures hit four-month high as Black Sea tensions escalate+3.7%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+2.6%
• Jul 16, 2026Grains Report 07/16/2026 - Market InsightsMarket Insights+2.6%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• May 5, 2023Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat-1.9%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-2.2%
• Jan 25, 2022Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-2.1%
• Oct 30, 2022Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt-5.6%
• Feb 15, 2023Black Sea Initiative to keep markets volatile short term: Grain market daily | AHDB-1.4%

After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices-4.3%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews-2.4%
• Feb 22, 2024Market Perspectives - February 22, 2024 - U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council-3.2%
• Jul 21, 2022After the Bell | July 21, 2022 - Pro Farmer+10.3%
• Jan 20, 2017Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.7%