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Grain futures fell sharply on May 17, 2023 after an extension of the Black Sea grain shipping deal was finalized, giving Ukrainian vessels another 60 days to export. Corn, soybeans and wheat all declined by double digits, with Chicago SRW wheat falling the most.
Favorable spring planting weather also added pressure.
Continued Ukrainian grain exports keep a major competitor supplying world markets, easing supply concerns and pressuring corn, soybean and wheat prices.
feedstuffs.comBen PotterMay 17, 2023After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Extension of the Black Sea grain deal on May 17 removed a geopolitical risk premium and sank grain prices.
The Black Sea deal extension on May 17 improved Ukrainian export supply and sharply sold off grain futures, including corn.
