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Turkey and the UN announced that the Black Sea Grain Deal, which allows safe export of Ukrainian grain, was renewed on March 18, 2023, for at least 60 days, half the intended period. Russia had warned that extensions beyond mid-May would depend on removing some Western sanctions.
Continuation removes a supply-disruption risk premium for Black Sea wheat and corn, which is mildly bearish for feed grain prices. The short duration keeps uncertainty alive into May.
reuters.comHuseyin HayatseverMar 18, 2023After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Black Sea Grain Deal extension on March 18, just before the Monday drop, removed the risk of an export disruption from Ukraine and lowered the supply-risk premium in wheat, even though it ran only 60 days.
