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Wheat futures rose after Black Sea tensions lifted global prices, with May-22 UK feed wheat up £3.75 to £222.00 per tonne. Paris rapeseed fell on lower crude and soybean prices.
Brazil's soybean harvest reached 5% complete, and Texas wheat conditions worsened, with 71% rated poor or very poor.
Geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and poor Texas wheat ratings support wheat prices, while weaker crude and soybeans pressure rapeseed. Improved Brazilian harvest weather eases soybean supply concerns.
ahdb.org.ukJan 25, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
