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US and Australian wheat markets gapped 4-6% higher on Monday after Russia suspended the Black Sea grain deal. Chicago, Kansas and Minneapolis wheat, corn, soybeans and Australian barley all rose, and the UN said Ukrainian grain ships continued to leave despite the suspension.
Broad gains across wheat, corn, soybeans and barley reflect fears of reduced Black Sea grain flows, raising the cost of feed ingredients.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorOct 31, 2022graincentral.comGuest AuthorOct 31, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
