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UK feed wheat and Paris rapeseed futures rose on May 15 after lower-than-expected US 2023/24 wheat production, but doubts persisted over renewal of the Black Sea Initiative due to expire that Thursday. Rapeseed prices are approaching levels last seen in the 2020/21 marketing year, down sharply from April 2022 peaks.
Doubts over the Black Sea deal raise the risk of disrupted Ukrainian grain flows, which supports feed wheat prices, while lower rapeseed prices make meal cheaper.
ahdb.org.ukMay 16, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
