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March corn futures rose 9.5 cents on the CBOT as the Ukraine conflict, short covering, rising export sales and a weaker dollar supported prices. Russia attacked the Ukrainian port of Odesa, raising doubts about the Black Sea Grain Initiative, though the port reopened and vessels resumed loading.
Attacks on Black Sea export ports raise grain logistics risk and support corn and feed-grain prices, while a weaker dollar makes US exports more competitive.
grains.orgDec 15, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
