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Two grain ships were struck in the Red Sea area over the weekend, one reportedly bound for Yemen, the first attack of this kind on grain vessels. Wheat rallied on short covering, but the gains faded as soybean meal fell more than 2%.
Attacks raise freight rates, insurance and transit times for grain, which can widen basis and trade costs. Heavy fund short positions leave prices vulnerable to sharp moves on such headlines.
grains.orgFeb 22, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
