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Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, sending CBOT wheat limit-up overnight with corn also surging before trimming gains.
Soybeans dipped about 1% on technical selling, while the Dow fell over 400 points and crude oil stayed above $92 a barrel.
The invasion removed Black Sea grain supply from the market, lifting wheat and corn prices sharply, with energy also spiking. The price implication is higher feed grain costs, though the rally was volatile.
theseam.comFeb 24, 2022theseam.comFeb 24, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
