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Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures gained 4.6% last week to £186.00/t. The rise followed Ukrainian strikes on Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov, which led Russia to temporarily halt shipments from the Don River into the Sea, a route carrying about 25% of Russian wheat exports.
Dec-26 Paris wheat also rose sharply.
A temporary disruption to Russian Black Sea wheat exports tightens global supply and supports feed wheat prices, though AHDB cautions the gain partly depends on the ongoing conflict.
ahdb.org.ukAHDBAug 1, 2026ahdb.org.ukAug 3, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
