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Russia declined to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative that had let Ukraine export about 33 million metric tons of grain via its ports. The U.S. also announced $250 million in additional aid for Ukraine's agricultural infrastructure, including elevators and port facilities.
Ending the export corridor threatens Ukrainian wheat and corn flows and raises Black Sea risk premiums and freight costs, supporting global grain prices.
doi.orgJul 20, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
