Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures closed at £215.75/t on 28 August, up 5.2% on the week and at their highest so far. Chicago Dec-26 wheat rose 12.1% over the week and Paris Dec-26 gained 5.4%, amid reports Russia may step up strikes on Ukraine and is re-routing some exports via the Baltic.
Expected constrained Russian and Ukrainian exports keep European and UK feed wheat prices firm, while the overbought technical reading raises the risk of a pullback. Speculative buying amplified the move.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.