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CME grain futures rose sharply as the Ukraine-Russia conflict cut expected grain availability from Ukraine and the Black Sea. Wheat and corn hit limit up, with March wheat up 73.75 cents to $10.01 and corn up 42.20 cents to $7.39.
Soybeans and soybean meal also gained, and porcine meat and bone meal prices rose sharply.
Shipping halts from Ukraine and drought in South America tighten global supply, which lifts feed grain, soymeal and animal protein prices. Feed buyers face higher input costs across the complex.
thejacobsen.comMar 1, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict drove CME grains and soybean meal sharply higher on March 1, a sentiment and substitution effect that carried into the window.
