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Wheat futures are trading at levels last seen in early 2023 as attacks on Black Sea ports, grain terminals and vessels disrupt regional exports. Russia and Ukraine together account for about 27% of global wheat exports, and the International Grains Council describes their exports as at a standstill.
Chicago wheat is up about 30% since early July.
With roughly a quarter of world wheat exports disrupted, the supply gap is large enough to lift global benchmark prices and pass through to feed and food costs. Prices remain below 2022 peaks, limiting the scale of the rally.
axios.comEmily PeckSep 3, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
