Wheat Prices Surge: Black Sea Conflict and Production Data (2026)

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• May 5, 2023Wheat prices surge as Kremlin drone attack stokes Black Sea tensions-1.9%
• Jul 20, 2023Black Sea conflict boosts wheat prices in Southeast Asia, Australia | S&P Global-0.7%
• Jul 15, 2026European wheat prices surge 6% on Black Sea shipping concerns By Investing.com+3.2%
• May 21, 2024Wheat prices soar as Black Sea crop causes concern | Dry Bulk-7.2%
• Aug 31, 2026Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices+2.2%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 21, 2024Wheat prices soar as Black Sea crop causes concern | Dry Bulk+3.2%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3.1%
• Mar 4, 2022How strength in soybean prices is linked to the Black Sea conflict+0.8%
• Feb 28, 2022Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+10.4%
• Mar 2, 2026Iran conflict drives up urea prices | The Western Producer+2.0%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• May 21, 2024Wheat prices soar as Black Sea crop causes concern | Dry Bulk+5.0%
• Aug 31, 2026Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices-5.0%
• Aug 27, 2026Egypt faces wheat supply crunch as Black Sea conflict escalates | S&P Global+2.9%
• Dec 31, 2019The Black Sea May Be the Key to Higher Wheat Prices - ProAg-1.1%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+6.0%