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An analysis argues that Black Sea wheat exporters (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) now supply a third of world wheat exports and are likely the main driver of Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices. It cites the 2010/11 Black Sea production collapse, which lifted U.S. prices by about $5 per bushel.
Black Sea output is the key swing factor for world wheat prices, so any crop shortfall there would lift HRW values and feed wheat costs.
farmprogress.comKim Anderson, Mark WelchDec 31, 2019
proag.comJan 1, 2020After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
