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Wheat futures rallied to near three-year highs on July 22, with KC HRW reaching its highest spot level since August 2023 and Chicago SRW at its highest since 2024. Russia paused night-time shipments from Novorossiysk after Ukrainian drone strikes, and the spring wheat tour showed lower yields in southern North Dakota.
Night-time loading pauses at a major Russian export port cut near-term export capacity and, combined with weak northern Plains yield readings, support wheat prices.
barchart.comAustin SchroederJul 22, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
