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De Molenaar reports that Middle East unrest and tight supply keep European commodity markets tense. Barley is trading near wheat prices with physical supply scarce, and corn remains expensive relative to barley and wheat.
Soybean oil is supported by the Middle East situation and North American biodiesel policy, while European soybean meal supply is limited.
Tight barley and corn supplies and firm soybean oil keep European feed grain costs elevated, while limited meal supply supports protein prices for feed buyers.
demolenaar.nlRedactie De MolenaarApr 2, 2026After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
