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Global ag markets rose sharply as traders priced in lost Black Sea supply after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Wheat was up nearly $1 a bushel week on week in the US, and European and UK prices also firmed.
Dry weather in the US winter wheat areas and drought in Spain and Portugal added support.
With global exporter stocks already low, the war-driven supply loss and weather problems raise the risk of tighter wheat supplies and higher feed costs.
farming.co.ukFeb 25, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
