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Canadian feed barley and wheat supplies are nearly exhausted, keeping prices firm. CBOT and KC wheat futures rose by the 50-cent daily limit after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then pulled back after a USDA outlook projected US 2022-23 wheat production at 1.94 billion bushels.
Feedlots are switching to corn rations.
Tight barley and wheat supplies push feedlots to corn, lifting corn demand, while the large USDA wheat forecast limits the rally in wheat.
agcanada.comAGCanadaFeb 25, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Limit-up CBOT/KC wheat after the invasion and tight Canadian feed barley supplies point to firm barley prices, though the pullback and feedlot switching to corn tempers the effect.
