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Corn futures rose to a two-week high on Monday as disrupted fertilizer supplies from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised doubts about the size of the upcoming US crop. Trump had threatened to escalate the war if the strait was not reopened within 48 hours.
Fertilizer supply disruption raises the risk of lower US corn yields or acreage, supporting corn prices and feed costs.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.