Wheat Mounts Historic Week as War Sparks Deepening Supply Fears

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg+0.6%
• Sep 7, 2022Wheat Prices Surge as Putin Assails Ukraine Grain Deal - Bloomberg+0.2%
• Feb 23, 2022Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg+6.4%
• Mar 2, 2022Wheat Futures Price Soars to 14-Year High as Russia Invasion Chokes Trade - Bloomberg+6.9%
• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-0.4%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Corn Prices: Crop Hits Two-Week High as Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Supply - Bloomberg-0.3%
• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg+0.9%
• Feb 23, 2022Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg+7.5%
• Mar 21, 2026Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge - Bloomberg-0.3%
• Jul 19, 2023Wheat Futures Rise 9% as Russia Threatens Ships Headed to Ukraine - Bloomberg+13.6%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Feb 23, 2022Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg+14.8%
• Mar 2, 2022Wheat Futures Price Soars to 14-Year High as Russia Invasion Chokes Trade - Bloomberg+17.2%
• Aug 29, 2026Prairie Wheat and Barley Prices Rise During Harvest as Global Supply Concerns Support Markets-5.0%
• Jul 19, 2023Wheat Futures Rise 9% as Russia Threatens Ships Headed to Ukraine - Bloomberg+10.3%
• May 19, 2026Global wheat markets on edge as war, weather, fertilizer shocks drive new rally | S&P Global-3.9%