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Hard red winter wheat futures in Chicago climbed to a nine-year high as Russia-Ukraine tensions raised fears of disruption to Black Sea trade. Ukraine and Russia together account for a large share of global wheat exports, and world food costs were already at a decade high.
Fears of Black Sea export disruption tighten an already low-stock wheat market, supporting higher wheat prices and feed grain costs for buyers.
bloomberg.comAllison Nicole SmithFeb 23, 2022After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
