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Wheat prices rose a third straight day after Russia said it would treat ships heading to Ukrainian ports as military cargo carriers. The move followed the Kremlin's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and Chicago wheat traded about 1.4% higher at a three-week high after an 8.5% jump the prior session.
Threats to Ukrainian shipping raise the risk of lost Black Sea wheat and corn exports, supporting global grain prices and raising feed costs. The effect depends on whether shipments actually halt.
cnbc.comSam MeredithJul 20, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Wheat rallied a third straight day on Russia's threat to treat Ukraine-bound ships as military cargo carriers, which raises Black Sea supply risk and added to the move ending July 23.
