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Wheat prices rose on both sides of the Atlantic as the threat of war between Russia and Ukraine unsettled grain markets. The two countries together account for 29% of global wheat exports, and Ukraine is also a major exporter of barley, corn and rapeseed.
Risk of disruption to Black Sea shipments tightens expected export supply, supporting wheat and feed grain prices and adding volatility ahead.
wsj.comWill Horner and Kirk MaltaisJan 31, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
