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Russia said on July 17, 2023 that it would not renew the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative, which expired that day. Wheat, corn and soybean prices rose on the news, and analysts warned of renewed food security concerns.
The end of the grain corridor removes a key export channel for Ukrainian grain and raises the risk of supply disruption, supporting grain prices. Feed buyers should expect higher and more volatile grain costs.
cnbc.comSam MeredithJul 17, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
