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Analysts warn that wheat prices could rise again if the deal allowing grain flows from three Ukrainian ports is not renewed on May 18. Russia says parts of the deal covering its own agricultural exports are not being honoured, while the EU says there are no restrictions on that trade.
Non-renewal of the corridor would remove a key export route for Ukrainian grain and could lift wheat and corn prices, with the strongest effects in import-dependent Middle East and African markets.
thenationalnews.comRobert Tollast, Sinan MahmoudApr 27, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
