The Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal: A Success or Failure?

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 17, 2023Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices-8.6%
• Jun 22, 2023Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says-8.7%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+0.6%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+2.2%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-2.2%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Apr 21, 2023The Black Sea Grain Deal: Fragile Cooperation Between Ukraine and Russia | Lawfare-8.6%
• Jul 17, 2023Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices+2.4%
• Jun 22, 2023Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says+7.6%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+1.8%
• Nov 27, 2018Ukraine says grain shipments may fall on more Russian naval aggression+1.5%