Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-2.2%
• May 25, 2023Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met-4.4%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters-8.6%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+2.2%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-3.6%
• May 25, 2023Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met-1.8%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+2.4%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+3.5%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.