Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 22, 2023Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says-8.7%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal: What's next now that Russia has pulled out?-8.6%
• Aug 31, 2023UN chief sends Russia new proposals to revive Black Sea grain deal but Moscow isn't satisfied | AP News+1.5%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+2.2%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters-8.6%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jun 22, 2023Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says+7.6%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal: What's next now that Russia has pulled out?+2.4%
• Aug 31, 2023UN chief sends Russia new proposals to revive Black Sea grain deal but Moscow isn't satisfied | AP News+0.3%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+3.5%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+2.4%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.