
Russia has said it would be inappropriate to extend the Black Sea grain deal unless sanctions affecting its agricultural exports are lifted. Sources say the deal must be renewed by around March 20 for exports to continue.
About 21.1 million tonnes of farm products, including 10 million tonnes of corn and 6 million tonnes of wheat, have been shipped under the pact.
A lapse in the corridor would remove a large share of Ukrainian corn and wheat from world markets, a meaningful upside risk for prices. Ukraine's export volumes are a significant part of global supply.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.