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Benchmark grain and oilseed futures have risen strongly since August, with corn and oats each gaining more than 12% by mid-September. The move is attributed to the Iran conflict lifting energy costs, adverse weather in key growing regions and tighter-than-expected supply forecasts.
Diesel and fertilizer costs for US producers have also climbed sharply.
Geopolitical energy shocks and tighter US supply forecasts lift grain prices directly and raise input costs. Tighter WASDE stocks support corn and soybean prices into the fall.
cmegroup.comCME GroupOct 1, 2026
reuters.comEmily Balsamo, CME GroupSep 25, 2026After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 12 past bullish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.5% to +6.8%), and +5.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
