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An Extension economist notes feeder cattle futures have dropped roughly $10/cwt since mid-February as corn jumped about a dollar per bushel. The May 2022 corn contract closed near $7.50/bu, and the December contract is up about $0.40 since mid-February.
Concern centers on corn stocks and production in Ukraine, which supplies a significant share of exports.
Corn is the main feed input for fed cattle, so a sustained rally squeezes feedlot margins and weighs on feeder cattle values. Ukrainian export losses keep corn supported.
u.osu.eduSmith atMar 9, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 14 past geopolitics events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -1.3% to -0.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
