Cattle and Grains See Risk Off Selling on Iran Conflict: Have Cattle Topped?

After 14 past geopolitics events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -1.3% to -0.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2026Grains Retreat Following Energies, See Farmer Selling: Cattle Plunge - AgWeb-1.4%
• Mar 2, 2026The U.S.-Iran War Has Hit Cattle. How Much Lower Will Prices Go?-2.8%
• Mar 9, 2022Cattle Input Prices Surge | Ohio BEEF Cattle Letter-0.2%
• Mar 9, 2020U.S. livestock: Cattle futures dive, led by energy, equity markets - AgCanada-5.6%
• Jul 24, 2023After the Bell | July 24, 2023 - Pro Farmer-0.0%

After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.8%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026The U.S.-Iran War Has Hit Cattle. How Much Lower Will Prices Go?+0.1%
• Nov 15, 2022CME feeder cattle approach one-month low as corn jumps | Financial Post+3.2%
• Mar 28, 2022Cattle market frustrates, but fundamentals are better this spring – The Seam+3.3%
• Mar 9, 2022Cattle Input Prices Surge | Ohio BEEF Cattle Letter+1.5%
• Mar 9, 2020U.S. livestock: Cattle futures dive, led by energy, equity markets - AgCanada-13.5%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2026Grains Retreat Following Energies, See Farmer Selling: Cattle Plunge - AgWeb+8.5%
• Jun 13, 2025Risk of regional conflict drives oil price surge after Israel's strike on Iran+10.2%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+16.5%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say | Reuters+35.6%
• Mar 2, 2026Dollar Gains as Iran Conflict Spreads. Why the Greenback Is a Haven Again. - Barron's+35.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2026Grains Retreat Following Energies, See Farmer Selling: Cattle Plunge - AgWeb+9.5%
• Jun 13, 2025Risk of regional conflict drives oil price surge after Israel's strike on Iran+12.0%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+12.3%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say | Reuters+31.0%
• Mar 5, 2026Oil settles up around 5% on supply concerns as Iran conflict widens | Reuters+12.3%