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Tehran is moving to restrict or effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping amid the Iran war, and most shipping companies have suspended transits. Around a third of globally traded urea passes through the strait.
A sustained Hormuz disruption would cut urea and other nitrogen fertiliser supply, raising planting costs and risking lower yields for grains and oilseeds, with knock-on effects on feed prices.
theconversation.comNima Shokri, Salome M. S. Shokri-KuehniMar 5, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
