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Australian phosphate fertiliser prices have jumped, with MAP and DAP up about $200 per tonne and urea up about $120 per tonne over several weeks. The shortage is linked to reduced Chinese gas production used to make certain fertilisers, raising concerns about seeding supply.
Chinese gas-related fertilizer curtailment tightens global phosphate and nitrogen supply, lifting input costs that feed into grain and oilseed production economics.
abc.net.auLucas Forbes, Bridget HerrmannFeb 4, 2021After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reduced Chinese gas output and phosphate supply constraints pushed MAP and DAP up about $200/t, adding to global price pressure.
