Loading…
Russia's industry minister said on March 10 that the country is temporarily suspending fertilizer exports, and urea and phosphate prices have continued climbing. Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak has also warned that Russia could cut gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany.
StoneX analyst Josh Linville says a gas embargo could cause a much larger price spike.
A cut to Russian gas would curb European nitrogen production and push fertilizer prices sharply higher on top of the existing export ban. The threat keeps the risk premium in urea and natural gas markets elevated.
producer.comSean PrattMar 17, 2022After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
