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StoneX's Josh Linville expects nitrogen fertilizer prices to remain high in 2026. He cites unrest in Iran, with Iran as the third-largest urea exporter, and European production running at about 75% of normal.
He also flags the Russia/Ukraine war as a risk to Russian nitrogen exports.
Persistent nitrogen cost pressure squeezes farm margins and may curb application rates, with indirect implications for grain supply and feed costs.
producer.comSean PrattJan 26, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
