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The St. Louis Fed explains that Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine worsened an already tight global fertilizer supply, pushing prices to record highs in spring 2022. Russia informally halted fertilizer exports and later imposed export restrictions lasting through May 2023, while shipping and financing firms avoided Russia.
High nitrogen and phosphate costs raise farm production expenses and can reduce planted acreage or application rates, which tends to support feed grain and meal prices over the medium term.
stlouisfed.orgSuzanne JenkinsOct 4, 2022After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
