Ukraine may restrict the import of fertilizers from Belarus

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2022How the Russia-Ukraine War Fueled Record Fertilizer Prices+1.6%
• Feb 2, 2022Belarus bans transit of oil products, fertilisers from Lithuania | Reuters-8.5%
• May 2, 2022Fertilizer sector set for biggest profits in years on Russia-Ukraine conflict | Reuters-2.3%
• Sep 28, 2022How the war in Ukraine is affecting the world's supply of fertilizer : NPR-5.3%
• Oct 5, 2022The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa - APRI – Africa Policy Research Institute+0.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2022How the Russia-Ukraine War Fueled Record Fertilizer Prices-1.7%
• Sep 28, 2022How the war in Ukraine is affecting the world's supply of fertilizer : NPR-2.6%
• Oct 5, 2022The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa - APRI – Africa Policy Research Institute-1.7%
• Feb 28, 2022Ukraine-Russia crisis: Indian fertiliser industry consider to source MoP, DAP from other countries+7.6%
• Mar 11, 2022Doors Open for OCP as Ukraine Crisis Pauses Russian Fertilizer Exports+0.5%